Covid weekly positive cases fall 22% to lowest since June despite schools going back

Just over 160,000 people in England tested positive in the week to September 15, down 22% on the week before, NHS Test and Trace figures show

England’s confirmed Covid cases fell 22% in the week to September 15, hitting the lowest level since June, despite schools going back.

Some 161,923 people tested positive at least once for the virus in the seven-day period, a level not seen since the 136,372 cases recorded in the week to June 30.

The sudden drop in NHS Test and Trace figures could be driven partly by a 12% fall in testing, but not completely.

Weekly tests fell from 6.4million in the week England’s schools returned to 5.6million in the week to September 15.

However, they were still above testing rates earlier in the summer, with fewer than 5million people a week being tested over August. NHS Test and Trace said the fluctuations “align with the school calendar” as testing takes place on school grounds when classes return.

Scientists are still analysing why cases have remained reasonably stable despite some projecting a surge in September.

Today one leading expert suggested Covid could resemble the common cold by spring as people’s immunity to the virus is boosted by vaccines and exposure.

Professor Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford University, said the country “is over the worst” and things “should be fine” once winter has passed – adding there was continued exposure to the virus even in people who are vaccinated.

It came after Professor Dame Sarah Gilbert told a Royal Society of Medicine webinar that viruses tend to become weaker as they spread around.

She said: “We normally see that viruses become less virulent as they circulate more easily and there is no reason to think we will have a more virulent version of Sars-CoV-2.

“We tend to see slow genetic drift of the virus and there will be gradual immunity developing in the population as there is to all the other seasonal coronaviruses.”

Seasonal coronaviruses cause colds, and Dame Sarah said: “Eventually Sars-CoV-2 will become one of those.”

Asked about the comments, Sir John told Times Radio: “If you look at the trajectory we’re on, we’re a lot better off than we were six months ago.

“The pressure on the NHS is largely abated. If you look at the deaths from Covid, they tend to be very elderly people, and it’s not entirely clear it was Covid that caused all those deaths, so I think we’re over the worst of it now.

“I think what will happen is, there will be quite a lot of background exposure to Delta (variant), we can see the case numbers are quite high, that particularly in people who’ve had two vaccines if they get a bit of breakthrough symptomatology, or not even symptomatology – if they just are asymptomatically infected, that will add to our immunity substantially.

“So I think we’re headed for the position Sarah describes probably by next spring would be my view. We have to get over the winter to get there but I think it should be fine.”

But scientists also warn it is too soon to celebrate, with winter coming and the NHS braced for a wave of fresh cases.

Since September 15, to which the Test and Trace numbers run, daily reported cases spiked back up to 36,100 on September 20 and 24,460 yesterday.