Vote, and then don’t jump to any conclusions on election night

Voters have two keys tasks Tuesday: Make sure those ballots are returned, and then do your best to ignore the early results.

In Washington, one of only eight states with all mail-in ballots, subsequent vote counts after Election Day can radically change the outcome. Case in point: In 2019, challenger Egan Orion was ahead of incumbent Seattle City Councilmember Kshama Sawant 54% to 45% after the first count. By the end of the week, Sawant was up 51% to 48% as more ballots were tallied. Although that kind of swing is particular to Seattle elections, keep it in mind when checking early results.

Nationally, too, the media’s fixation on election night coverage often does democracy a disservice.

States report incomplete election results, leading to all kinds of tensions and potential confusion.

Early voting begins in some states in early October and continues into November. With COVID-19 concerns, absentee voting has boomed. For the first time in history, only 30% of voters cast their ballots on Election Day in 2020, reported the Brookings Institution.

Additionally, most states have laws that forbid counting early votes before Election Day. That makes the preliminary counts poor predictors of outcome.

Former President Donald Trump exploited these delays and gaps on election night in 2020. According to testimony gathered by the Jan. 6 committee, Trump rejected cautions from his closest aides and advisers and went out to declare himself the winner.

In close races, greet any victory announcement tonight with skepticism. And buckle your metaphorical seat belts for what’s sure to be a turbulent chapter in American politics no matter how the election unfolds.