Summary: U.S. Sen. Patty Murray has a tenuous connection with swing voters.
Chatter: U.S. Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., would do well to remember a guy named Warren Magnuson.
Magnuson was a powerhouse back in the other Washington throughout a career in Congress that lasted 44 years. He seemed as permanent on the state’s political landscape as Mount Rainier. And then, in 1980, many were shocked when Magnuson lost his Senate race to a much younger Republican challenger named Slade Gorton.
Tiffany Smiley is no Slade Gorton. She spouts the standard Republican attack lines and betrays only a rudimentary grasp of complicated issues. She has neither Gorton’s extensive experience in government nor his imposing intellect. Yet, she does have one thing going for her: she is running against an older senator who is part of the Democratic establishment in D.C.; an incumbent seeking a sixth six-year term who may have lost a connection with the younger swing voters who pay little attention to politics.
Those swing voters, mostly in the suburbs, will decide if Murray goes the way of Magnuson.
Washington is considered a Democratic-leaning blue state, but really, it is more a matter of deep blue cities and fiery red rural areas with a lot of purple in the suburbs. According to a recent Seattle Times poll, Murray is far ahead in the urban fourth of the electorate, while Smiley has a strong lead with the rural quarter of voters. Among the half that live in suburbs, the senate race is tight.
Chances are that most of those swing voters could not tick off a single accomplishment that Murray can claim from her many years in office. Murray, in fact, has many achievements, but most people are ignorant about the Byzantine world of legislation. For them, Murray may as well be doing her job in secret somewhere in Antarctica.
Voters who are not solidly in the red or blue camps often make their electoral decisions by the most simplistic of measures. It is easy to imagine one of these folks saying to themselves, “Gosh, Patty Murray has been in office for an awfully long time. Maybe this nice-looking gal from the east side of the mountains should have a shot at the job.”
Murray probably will win, but not if too many swing voters impulsively skip over the issues and decide they simply want to try something new.
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